A minority cabinet would make higher education prey to day-to-day issues

At the end of the afternoon this Tuesday, informateur Sybrand Buma will present an interim report on the discussions between the political parties D66 and CDA on the formation of a new cabinet. On Friday afternoon, Buma sounded resolute that a cabinet comprising the D66, CDA, the left-wing party GroenLinks-PvdA, and the right-wing party VVD is out of the picture because VVD refuses to work with GroenLinks-PvdA.

Later, he brought some nuance to his statements. After all, he has yet to meet the leaders of several parties and will only draw his conclusions afterwards. For now, this is the state of affairs: VVD does not want to be part of a cabinet alongside GroenLinks-PvdA.

There is still one option on paper: replacing GroenLinks with the right-wing party JA21 and perhaps one other party. But D66 is not keen on that idea. Moreover, and most importantly, D66 leader Rob Jetten is not fixated on a majority cabinet. ‘I think we need to be open to all kinds of options,' he once said.

Outgoing cabinet
Meanwhile, the Schoof cabinet is still at the helm, with ministers from the right-wing parties BBB and VVD sometimes acting strangely. The negotiating party leaders, Rob Jetten (D66) and Henri Bontenbal (CDA), would like to replace the outgoing team as soon as possible.

What options do they have left? If things don't go as they expect, they will just have to do it whatever way they can. They could settle for a minority cabinet, which will have to find support for all its plans from the opposition in the House of Representatives and the Senate, with or without permanent coalition partners. 

This would have advantages and disadvantages for higher education. Austerity measures such as those imposed by the current cabinet are less likely, but day-to-day incidents and issues will probably have a greater impact on the sector.

Additional funds
D66 prides itself on being an education-focused party. If Jetten becomes the prime minister of the Netherlands, one can expect the current cabinet's austerity measures to be reversed. The government could even allocate additional funds to education. 

The question is whether the House of Representatives will oppose this. VVD might, but few parties would oppose such investments. Additional expenditure will therefore not be a political problem.

What about distribution?
The main question is, therefore, where that money should go. Given the broad support a minority cabinet needs, it will have to meet various demands, such as strengthening fundamental research and focusing on innovation and applied research.

A second question is: which fields will this money go to? This may depend more on the political issues of the day. If a majority becomes convinced that research into healthcare, quantum computing, or AI is very important for our future and submits motions in these areas, a minority cabinet will have to be more willing to compromise.

Defence
Additional funding for universities and universities of applied sciences may also come from the Ministry of Defence. A minority government can say two things at once: 'we are investing in defence', and 'we are investing in research and innovation'. It would take a clever opposition party to oppose that.

In a recent NRC column, the former minister of Education Robbert Dijkgraaf (D66) argues for a cultural shift in science: from technology to ethics, all scientific fields must engage in military innovation.

Dijkgraaf writes: ‘A concrete question is what percentage of the defence budget will go to research and innovation. No explicit NATO standard has been agreed on this, but the share in the EU is currently around a meagre 1 per cent, compared to 15 per cent in the United States.'

Day-to-day incidents will cause more of a stir...
Recently, outgoing Minister of Education Gouke Moes (BBB) put pressure on Radboud University Nijmegen, where a fiercely pro-Palestinian lecturer caused a stir. Moes threatened to intervene, which was a break with tradition. His predecessors did not see such things as their responsibility, and therefore did not intervene. At most, they promised to engage in a “conversation”, and then not say anything else about it afterwards.

This could be different with a minority government. The Parliament may ask the government to intervene if a demonstration gets out of hand or if a professor's research proves to be unreliable due to the influence of the business community, to name but two situations. Normally, most governing parties would support the minister's defensive stance, but with a minority government, you don't have that safety net.

... but also offer opportunities
Conversely, an incident can also be used to exert more pressure on politicians. Is a small but valuable programme being forced to close due to a lack of funds? You can bet it will lead to questions in Parliament.

The Frisian programme can serve as an example. Funding was allocated for it at the insistence of politicians. In principle, this could happen with any programme forced to close, such as those at universities in regions experiencing a population decline.

Cabinet ministers never fall over higher education
When incidents occur, the Minister of Education can stand firm and say: 'This is not how we do things'. If there is a shortage of funds for specific programmes, the government can promise to work on more stable funding, and ask the institutions to be patient.

Will the minister then be dismissed? Usually not. Higher education is a sensitive subject, often in the spotlight, yet it never leads to a cabinet crisis. This will be no different in a minority cabinet. Nitrogen and migration are more sensitive issues.

HOP / Bas Belleman