Minority cabinet vulnerable to incidents, including in higher education

After the elections, there was only one possibility for a majority cabinet: if the winning party, the centre-left D66, formed a coalition with CDA, GroenLinks-PvdA, and VVD. However, the right-wing party VVD refuses to cooperate with a left-wing party, such as GroenLinks-PvdA.

Numerically, another option would have been to form a cabinet with the far-right party JA21, but, ideologically, JA21 is so far removed from D66 that it just didn't make sense. This left D66 and CDA with only one option: a minority cabinet, which is an unusual choice. The last minority cabinet, which governed for almost four years, took office in 1918.

Minority
A minority cabinet must find support for all its plans among the opposition in the House of Representatives and the Senate. This has advantages and disadvantages for higher education. Though austerity measures are less likely, incidents and everyday issues will impact the sector more.

One can expect the new cabinet to announce budget cuts, if only to pay for the increased defence budget, but these are likely to affect healthcare and social security, other than education.

More money
D66 prides itself on being the party of the education sector. If its leader, Rob Jetten, becomes the prime minister, one can expect the budget cuts imposed by the previous cabinet to be reversed. The sector could even get more money.

As VVD will be in the government, it will not oppose new investments in education and research, despite having been in the previous cabinet. After all, the right-wing party, also known as the entrepreneurs' party, can argue that those investments are good for the economy. 

How about the distribution of funds?
The main question is where that money should go. Given the broad support that a minority government needs, it will have to meet various demands. For example, it must strengthen fundamental research while also focusing on innovation and applied research.

As for the fields more likely to benefit, this may depend on the political issues of the day. If a majority of MPs becomes convinced that research into healthcare, quantum computing, or AI is very important for the country's future, a minority government will have to be more willing to compromise.

Defence
The higher education and research sector may also receive more funds from the Ministry of Defence. The minority government could argue that this would be killing two birds with one stone. 

The question is whether the scientific community would be willing to collaborate with the Ministry of Defence. In a column published in the NRC newspaper, former D66 minister Robbert Dijkgraaf argues for a cultural shift in academia: in his view, all scientific fields, from technology to ethics, must engage in military innovation.

"A concrete question is what percentage of the defence budget will go to research and innovation. No explicit NATO standard has been agreed on this regard, but the share in the EU is currently around a meagre 1 per cent, compared to 15 per cent in the United States," he writes.

Incidents should cause more of a stir...
Last autumn, the outgoing Minister of Education Gouke Moes (BBB) pressured Radboud University Nijmegen to dismiss a vocal (and controversial) pro-Palestinian lecturer.

This was unusual to say the least. His predecessors had all protected educational institutions from angry outbursts. When asked to intervene, previous ministers said that controversial lecturers were not their responsibility. At most, they would occasionally engage in a “discussion” with universities, and the subject died out.

That could be different with a minority government. MPs may be more prone to asking the government to intervene if a demonstration gets out of hand, a professor's research proves unreliable due to the influence of the business community, or there is evidence of fraud in a study programme. Normally, most governing parties would support the minister's defensive stance, but a minority government doesn't have that safety net.

... but also offer opportunities
On the other hand, the higher education sector can exert more pressure on politicians. Should a small but valuable programme be closed due to lack of funds? You can bet that it will lead to questions in Parliament.

The Frisian language programme can serve as an example. Funds were allocated to this programme at the insistence of politicians. This could happen with any programme that is forced to close its doors, such as those with a shortage of students or located in regions experiencing a population decline.

Governments never fall over higher education
Usually, the Minister of Education can stand firm amidst these incidents and say, "This is not how we do things." If there is a shortage of funds for specific programmes, the government can argue that institutions make their own choices, and it is not the government's responsibility to ensure more funds for them. The minister can also say that the government is working on a more stable source of funding, just wait and see.

However, if nothing happens after that, that is usually not enough to make a cabinet fall. Higher education is a sensitive subject and is often in the spotlight, yet it never leads to a cabinet crisis. This will be no different in a minority cabinet. Nitrogen, housing and migration are much more sensitive issues.

Outcome
D66, CDA and VVD are still discussing their joint programme, which must be flexible enough to accommodate the opposition's wishes. The question is how long they will need to reach an agreement. They probably want to replace Dick Schoof's team as soon as possible.

The outcome of the negotiations is still uncertain. Will there be more money for the basic student grant or not? How will research funding be distributed? What will happen to education funding? The answers to these questions will all be in the final coalition agreement.