Would higher education be better off if the cabinet fell?

Some people wonder how long the Schoof cabinet will remain in power. After all, the coalition comprised of PVV, VVD, NSC and BBB is still bickering. Just a week ago, PVV leader Geert Wilders threatened to topple the cabinet if he did not get his way on asylum policy.

"Let it fall," many scientists and teachers probably think. After all, the harsh cuts to the higher education and research budget can be partially attributed to PVV. Perhaps a subsequent cabinet would bring some relief to the sector or even repair the damage.

But that seems to be wishful thinking. Anything can happen in an election campaign. For the time being, it seems that a fall would change little.

Bruins still around
First of all, the Minister of Education, Eppo Bruins, will not go away if the cabinet resigns. He will remain in his post in a caretaker capacity until a successor takes over. That's easily a year down the line. The previous cabinet (with Robbert Dijkgraaf as the minister) served in a caretaker capacity for no less than 361 days before Schoof's team took office. The cabinet before that (Rutte III) continued to govern for 360 days after it fell. 

There is nothing we can do about the cuts to the higher education and science budgets either. They are awaiting a verdict from the Senate, but most parties are in favour, including CDA, ChristenUnie, SGP and JA21, which have made a deal with the coalition.

A cabinet fall would not immediately avert the cutbacks. It is very unlikely that the Senate will reject the budget. The last time this happened was in 1907 with the budget of the minister of war.

Elections
A future cabinet can chart its own course and allocate additional funds, but it is already foreseeable that election promises such as "we will invest a billion euros more in education and research" would not be popular.

Besides, who will form the next cabinet? Polls on EenVandaag show that PVV and VVD would remain about the same size as they are now, while NSC will crumble from 20 to 3 seats. BBB would also lose seats.

CDA would win many seats. Together, PVV, VVD and CDA would have a majority. In that case, little would change for higher education and research as CDA wanted to cut back just as much as the cabinet is doing now.

Money aside
Will a new cabinet, money aside, change course on other issues? One of the most controversial measures, the fine for students who take longer to graduate, has already been scrapped after negotiations with the opposition. The other laws that the Ministry of Education is now drafting have met less political resistance. All kinds of debates will surely follow, but a cabinet fall is not likely to cause an earthquake.

International students
Take the much-discussed Internationalisation in Balance bill, with which the cabinet wants to curb the influx of foreign students. Enough parties are supporting this course of action, so the bill will not be thrown in the waste bin anytime soon.

The most controversial part of the bill is the test for programmes taught in languages other than Dutch, determining if they should do so or not. The consequences of this test for regions whose population is shrinking could be significant, but the opposition (CDA, SGP, ChristenUnie and JA21) has already forced the bill to be softened. Bruins may only introduce this test if he smooths off the rough edges for shrinking regions. 

Knowledge security
Bruins is working on a bill concerning knowledge security, but even that is not controversial. The main criticism against it is that tthe minister is taking too long to finish it. Almost all parties believe that the Netherlands should be more cautious with scientific knowledge that could have military applications. They believe the country must ensure that this knowledge does not fall into the wrong hands. The distrust of countries such as China, Russia and now the United States runs deep.

A screening process will be introduced for Master's students and researchers who come here to study or work in sensitive fields. Almost no one in politics is hoping for a delay. Meanwhile, scientists are concerned that international cooperation will be unnecessarily hindered.

Smaller issues
Other issues are even less controversial. Take the university of applied sciences doctorate, which will be called a professional doctorate. Bruins wants to enshrine this degree in law and no one seems to be categorically opposed to it.

Funding
The most fundamental issue – perhaps even more fundamental than the budget cuts – is the funding system. The cabinet wants to make higher education programmes less dependent on the number of students.

Universities and universities of applied sciences also cherish this wish, although the question is how it will turn out. CDA wanted such a reform to be accompanied by a 200-million euro cut. In any case, this is such a complex issue that a caretaker cabinet will never make any decisions about it.

About the left
A centre-left cabinet could also be formed. That would be good news for universities and colleges. Parties on that side of the spectrum usually have a greater commitment to education and research.

But to force PVV and VVD into opposition, the progressive parties must achieve a major election victory and take the lead in the negotiations. As long as that does not happen, politics will probably continue along the same path: less money, fewer internationals.